TDF Prologue / Doping Allegations

Yesterday Lance Armstrong made a serious statement at the opening time trial of the Tour de France. Unexpectedly, Armstrong finished 5 seconds faster than his rival, Alberto Contador.

It appears that Armstrong may be better prepared than I previously thought. Although we won't really know until the mountains, I might have to revise my predictions from last week. At this point I still don't think he has the legs to win the Tour, but I do think the race could be a lot tighter than I originally thought. I will be real curious to see how Lance performs in the first real mountain stages (7 and 8).

Don't forget Tuesday. Stage 3 will be quite interesting as well. The race passes over a few stretches of cobblestones near the finish that could really shake things up. Contador has little experience riding over cobbles.

Speaking of Lance, did you see the feature length story in the Wall Street Journal yesterday? Quite interesting.

Former teammate Floyd Landis laid-out some detailed doping allegations against Lance Armstrong and the U.S. Postal / Discovery teams. Although very compelling, you have to take it with massive grains of salt. Landis is a known liar and bit of a loose cannon. Of course Armstrong has strongly denied all allegations.

There's been an awful lot of smoke surrounding Lance and illegal doping over the years. I completely agree that there are a lot of reasons to believe that he isn't doping, such as his freakish physiology, his attention to detail, his revolutionary preparedness and training, and the fact that he lost a lot of upper body weight due to his cancer, while maintaining the muscle mass in his legs.

However, I'd like to point out some historical facts:

* The three winners of the Tour de France in the three years just prior to the the Armstrong era have all admitted to doping:

1996: Bjarne Riis
1997: Jan Ullrich
1998: Marco Pantani

* During the Armstrong era of 1999 through 2005, there were a total of eight different riders that finished second or third to Lance in those years. Five of those riders have since been busted for doping: Alex Zulle, Jan Ullrich, Raimondas Rumsas, Alexander Vinokourov and Ivan Basso.

* In 2006, the first year after the Armstrong era, Tour winner Floyd Landis was stripped of his victory for illegal doping.

* At least six teammates -top lieutenants - of Lance Armstrong have been busted, or admitted to doping over the years, including; Tyler Hamilton, Ivan Basso, Roberto Herras, Floyd Landis, Frankie Andreu and Manuel Beltran.

I really don't know what the truth is. What are your thoughts? Do you think Lance has been, or has ever cheated?


Jeff
HikingintheSmokys.com Detailed information on trails in the Smoky Mountains; includes trail descriptions, key features, pictures, video, maps, elevation profiles, news, and more.

The Armstrong-Contador rematch

"My relationship with Lance Armstrong is zero"

This Saturday marks the 97th version of the Tour de France which will begin in Rotterdam, Netherlands with a short 5.5-mile time trial. The race features a delicious rematch of the Lance Armstrong - Alberto Contador feud.

Last year I predicted that Armstrong would finish on the podium of cycling’s greatest race, with an outside chance of possibly landing at the top. He ended up finishing third, with his teammate, Alberto Contador, landing the Yellow Jersey.

This year, I think it’s likely that Armstrong will finish with the best overall time among his teammates. Unfortunately for Lance in this scenario, Contador is no longer a teammate.

Although he’s never publicly admitted it, I believe Lance’s biggest reason for coming out of retirement two years ago was to defend his all time record of most Tour de France victories (7). At only 27 years of age, and already with 2 Tour victories under his belt, I think Lance knows that Contador has an excellent chance at matching or surpassing his record someday. I believe Lance’s chief motivation for returning was to take out at least one Yellow Jersey victory from Contador, thus increasing his chances of maintaining his record as the man with the most Tour championships.

Be that as it may, I don’t think Armstrong’s chances of beating his former teammate are all that great. In fact, I think Contador will beat Armstrong by a fairly large margin – by more than 7 or 8 minutes.

On roads that will be up and down all day, Stages 7 and 8 will present opportunities for the Spaniard to pick up time against his rivals. However, with a weaker team than he had last year, I think Contador will wait until late in the Tour to strike against his former teammate.

I look for Contador to land his first psychological blow on Armstrong during Stage 14 when the race finishes at the top of Ax-3 Domaines, the second major mountain top finish of the race. Look for Contador to launch his first serious attack on the slopes of the final climb to the ski resort in the Pyrenees.

It’s likely that Lance will be able to limit his losses on this day. However, Stage 17 will likely be the day of reckoning. The 108-mile stage ends at the summit of the famous Col du Tourmalet. Contador will use the final miles on the steep slopes to the top to smash Armstrong and all other contenders.

I still think Lance is strong enough to finish on the podium again. There aren’t many contenders that will be able to go mano a mano with Lance. It’s likely that Andy Schleck will again be his biggest competition for that second spot on the podium. Who knows, maybe if circumstances prevail towards the end of the race, maybe Armstrong will covertly lend some assistance to Schleck in order to overcome Contador? If my theory for Lance’s return is correct, the motivation will certainly be there.

With last year’s winner out of the picture due to doping investigations, I look for Contador, or one of the Schleck brothers, Frank or Andy, to claim the Red Polka Dot Climbers Jersey for the “King of the Mountains” this year.

For the Green Sprinters Jersey, I fully expect Mark Cavendish to win this year. Despite a nasty crash at the end of the 4th Stage of the Tour of Switzerland (see video below), there is no one in the world as fast as this man is right now.




Jeff
HikingintheSmokys.com Detailed information on trails in the Smoky Mountains; includes trail descriptions, key features, pictures, video, maps, elevation profiles, news, and more.